1. Will Trump win the election?
1) The U.S. presidential election
The U.S. presidential election is about 20 days away. Over the course of the year-long campaign, there have been many changes, including the Democratic candidate shifting from Biden to Harris.
The race has now evolved into a head-to-head contest between Trump and Harris.
Until recently, media reports and polls indicated that Harris was leading Trump by about 4%, and she was generally considered to be in a favorable position.
However, a surprising turnaround has recently occurred in the head-to-head race.
2) Trump is outperforming Harris
In the U.S. presidential election, which is determined by the electoral college system, Trump is performing well in key battleground states that decide the outcome.
He is leading in Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, and is reportedly ahead by 1-3% in other battlegrounds.
This is an astonishing reversal. Whether Trump can ride this momentum to ultimate victory is still uncertain, as many obstacles remain.
Some believe Trump is consistently outperforming Harris, pointing to the presence of a significant number of "shy Trump" voters who are not reflected in the polls.
2. What would a second Trump term look like if he is re-elected?
1) Trump's astanishing behavior
During his first term, Trump implemented policies and took actions that surprised many people.
In relation to South Korea, he negotiated a defense cost-sharing agreement that demanded an unprecedented amount from the South Korean government.
He also held the Singapore summit to engage in negotiations with North Korea. Additionally, Trump pressured European countries, which he viewed as benefiting from near "free-riding," to increase their defense spending to 2% of their GDP. These are some examples of his unconventional approach.
This reflects a style where Trump quickly negotiates and implements ideas or policies that previous U.S. presidents had neither considered nor executed, as long as they benefit the national interest.
Some have criticized this approach, calling it an erratic or impulsive style.
2) Trump's business style
However, Trump is a businessman by background, having developed real estate in the New York area since his youth.
As a businessman, Trump is instinctively sensitive to matters of interest and conflict. When opposing interests arise, he tends to resolve them through negotiation.
Understanding Trump from this perspective reveals his strengths as a businessman with a talent for deal-making.
In his political approach, Trump emphasizes not only the political aspects of alliances but also the economic interests involved.
Trump is someone who thoroughly follows economic interests. From this perspective, he is a highly rational person who acts according to his own thoughts and beliefs. If Trump were to be re-elected, many express concern about his autocratic behavior and self-serving policies in a potential second term.
However, if one closely analyzes his business style and the policies during his presidency, it becomes clear that Trump is pursuing his own calculated form of rationality—what could be called the "Trump style."
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